光大期货金融期货日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: The A-share market fluctuated after a rise and fall yesterday. The style was divided, with sectors such as electronics and power equipment rising, and sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals and non-bank finance correcting. The capital sentiment remained high. The A500ETF received significant subscriptions, and the net short positions of the Top5 member units in IF increased significantly recently. It is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate within the shock center formed since October. The spring rally may not be as strong as in previous years [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the capital market is the biggest support for the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. It is expected that the bond market will remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The A-share market fluctuated after a rise and fall yesterday. The Wind All A index rose 0.19% with a trading volume of 2.88 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.78%, the SSE 50 index fell 0.43%, and the SSE 300 index fell 0.29%. The A500ETF received significant subscriptions, and the net short positions of the Top5 member units in IF increased significantly recently. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate within the shock center formed since October. The spring rally may not be as strong as in previous years [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down. The 30-year main contract fell 0.44%, the 10-year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.03%. The central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the capital market is the biggest support for the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. It is expected that the bond market will remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: From December 31, 2025, to January 5, 2026, IH rose 2.44%, IF rose 2.11%, IC rose 3.17%, and IM rose 2.73%. The SSE 50 index rose 2.26%, the SSE 300 index rose 1.90%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.49%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 2.09% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: From December 31, 2025, to January 5, 2026, TS fell 0.04%, TF fell 0.055%, T remained unchanged, and TL remained unchanged [3]. 3. Market News - On January 7, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that the US government's demand to obtain 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela violates international law and infringes on Venezuela's sovereignty. China's legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be protected [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [5][6][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][14]. - Exchange Rates: The report provides charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][23].