光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月8日）-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, and concludes that most of these commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, international oil prices fell. The WTI 2 - month contract closed down $1.14 to $55.99 per barrel, a 2.00% decline; the Brent 3 - month contract closed down $0.74 to $59.96 per barrel, a 1.22% decline; SC2602 closed at 415.5 yuan per barrel, down 9.3 yuan per barrel, a 2.19% decline. The US - Venezuela oil import agreement may increase supply, and the trade flow may shift from the East to the West. Shipping is also affected, and short - term oil prices face pressure [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE declined. Singapore's fuel oil supply is expected to be abundant in January, while the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak. The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the oil price fluctuations, and the domestic market may face additional pressure due to the increase in FU warehouse receipts [2]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE declined slightly. The inventory level of domestic refineries decreased, the social inventory increased, and the operating rate decreased. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is stable in the short - term, but future raw material supply is uncertain. The release of winter storage contracts by major refineries provides some support, and the asphalt price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [2]. - Polyester: TA605 closed flat, EG2605 closed up 1.07%, and PX futures closed down 0.68%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A PX device in the Middle East will be shut down for maintenance. The decline in crude oil prices and the game between reality and expectation in the PX market may lead to a decline in PX/TA. The supply of ethylene glycol is slightly reduced, and the price is expected to be volatile [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber on the SHFE rose. The precipitation in the producing areas has eased, the raw material price is supported, the downstream tire demand is weak, and the policy is awaited. With minor fundamental contradictions and an improved macro - environment, the rubber price is expected to be volatile [4]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2273 yuan per ton. The domestic production in January is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume will decline. The demand for olefins has certain support. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, while the compressed MTO device profit may form a negative feedback. Methanol is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [6]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, the price of polyolefins was reported. In January, the supply is expected to decrease slightly due to some temporary shutdowns and no new capacity. The demand is expected to recover in the first half of January and weaken in the second half. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - PVC: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. The supply remains high, the domestic demand slows down, and the 05 contract is at a large premium. The PVC price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [8]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on January 8, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. Market News - US President Trump announced that the US has reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude oil, which is expected to increase the US crude oil supply and cause the international oil price to fall on Wednesday [11]. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. - Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [30][34][35]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: The report displays the spread trends of different contracts of multiple energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [42][44][47]. - Inter - variety Spread: It presents the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [58][60][62]. - Production Profit: The report shows the production profit trends of some products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - made ethylene glycol [68][70][71]. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Analyst Di Yilin, and Analyst Peng Haibo, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [73][74][75]. Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [78].