宏观专题：对当前房地产困境的三点思考

Group 1: Market Conditions - The current real estate market is characterized by an oversupply, with a significant increase in the "套户比" (household-to-unit ratio), which rose from approximately 1.06 in 2020 to about 1.17 in 2023[2][11][16] - As of November 2025, the total inventory of unsold residential properties includes 1.592 billion square meters of properties under construction and 394 million square meters of completed but unsold properties, indicating a high level of existing inventory[2][25][30] - The average decommissioning period for unsold properties under construction is 2.12 years, while for completed properties, it is 1.63 years, both remaining at historically high levels[2][25][31] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the real estate market, it is crucial to reduce "net supply" through four key policy measures: optimizing land acquisition, revitalizing idle properties for public services, accelerating the replacement of aging housing, and allowing market forces to eliminate ineffective supply in lower-tier cities[1][5][33] - The government has proposed to acquire idle land and existing properties, with plans to store approximately 2.63 million square meters of land, valued at around 676.5 billion yuan, to improve supply-demand dynamics[33][36] Group 3: Price Trends - Second-hand housing prices are seen as more indicative and lead the market compared to new housing prices, reflecting real demand and market sentiment more effectively[6][19] - The current market is in a phase where new housing prices are stabilizing, but the pressure from existing inventory continues to dominate, indicating that a true price stabilization may require a faster clearance of second-hand housing stock[6][19] Group 4: Risk Assessment - The real estate sector faces significant tail risks involving developers, homebuyers, and banks, particularly with small and medium-sized banks under pressure from potential asset quality deterioration due to falling property prices[7][19] - Developers are primarily at risk from liquidity issues and asset impairment, while homebuyers face risks from shrinking asset balances and potential social stability concerns[7][19]