集运指数（欧线）：运价顶点显现，02观望，04逢高布空

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of freight rates for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) has emerged. For the EC2602 contract, it is advisable to wait and see, while for the EC2604 contract, consider shorting at high prices. The 2602 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1750 - 1900 points in the short term, and the 2604 and 2610 contracts should be approached with a strategy of shorting at high prices [1][12][13]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1,779.1, down 3.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 43,604 and an open interest of 21,811, a decrease of 3,185. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,182.0, down 1.92%, with a trading volume of 22,083 and an open interest of 26,339, an increase of 2,409 [1]. - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS European route index was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot European Line Freight Rates: Different carriers' spot European line freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for $/40'GP ranging from 2,610 to 3,510 and for $/20'GP from 1,533 to 2,255 [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.74, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.98 [1]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - News and Market Reaction: After the market closed on Wednesday, MSK's fourth - week cabin opening continued to rise slightly, driving the market up on Thursday morning. Later, Yang Ming and Maersk adjusted their prices, causing the 2602 contract to decline mainly due to long - position liquidation after the peak, and the 2604 contract to decline mainly due to short - position increase [10]. - Capacity Changes: In the fourth week, the PA Alliance's FE4 route changed from normal operation to a blank sailing, and in the fifth week, Evergreen's CES route changed from a blank sailing to normal operation. The CES sailings in the sixth and seventh weeks were delayed by one week. The weekly average capacity in January was about 310,000 TEU, and in February, it was 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of 4 pending voyages) [10][11]. 3. Contract Valuation Analysis - 2602 Contract: Its valuation depends on freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 1900 - 2000 point range of the SCFIS index is estimated based on the static quotes of major carriers. After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be significant, and the short - term valuation center is expected to oscillate between 1750 - 1900 points [12]. - 2604 Contract: April is a traditional off - season for the European line. With the supply - demand situation further relaxing and the freight rate center moving down, the valuation of the 2604 contract is expected to be lower than that of the 2510 contract. It is recommended to short at high prices [13]. - 2610 Contract: Due to geopolitical risks such as Iran's missile reconstruction and Israel's strike signals, the market's resumption of navigation expectations has declined. In the short term, focus on capital games, and in the long term, maintain a strategy of shorting at high prices [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14].