菜粕期货日报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 5, 2026, the opening price of the main contract (RM.CZC) of rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2354.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2350.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decline from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 271,120 lots, the open interest was 644,700 lots, and the trading volume was 6.41268 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On January 5, 2026, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2440.0 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton. The basis was 79 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The positive basis reflects the current tight supply in the spot market, supporting the spot price to maintain a premium over the futures price [3][5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Supply: Slow clearance of Australian rapeseed, zero operating rate of domestic oil mills, and low inventory of coastal oil mills in the rapeseed industry lead to tight market supply, which supports prices [6]. - Demand: Feed enterprises have high finished - product inventory, weak purchasing willingness, mainly replenishing stocks in small orders and purchasing as needed. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness, resulting in mediocre demand [6]. - Related Markets: The price of the soybean meal market is stable, and the domestic mainstream reference price of soybean meal is 3105 yuan/ton. The futures market maintains a low - level range - bound oscillation, which restricts the price of rapeseed meal [6]. - Policy and Trade: The progress of China - Australia rapeseed procurement policy and changes in China - Canada relations are the focus of the market. The result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is still unclear, increasing market uncertainty [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Technically, the price is above the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal. If the supply shortage persists, the price may remain firm; if the import policy loosens, the supply pressure may be relieved [7].