宝城期货国债期货早报-20260108

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]