煤焦：市场情绪回暖，盘面波动加剧

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive statements from the central bank meeting have boosted market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the intensity of downstream raw material replenishment before the festival. The price is fluctuating sharply, so cautious operation is required [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally rose, with coking coal and coke closing at the daily limit and maintaining an upward trend in the night session [3] Market Driving Factors - The central bank emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, strengthening the expectation of loose monetary policy and boosting the sentiment of the relatively undervalued ferrous metal sector [3] Supply Side - There was concentrated year - end production reduction and maintenance in major coal - producing areas at the end of last year. After the new year, coal mines resumed production. This week, the production of raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 1.899 million tons and 734,000 tons respectively [3] - Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has slightly decreased, but the port inventory is still relatively high. The rumor about some coal mines in Yulin being removed from the supply - guarantee list and having their production capacity reduced mainly affects thermal coal, with limited impact on coking coal supply [3] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly expanded in the past two weeks, and the daily average hot - metal output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 2nd, it was 227,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 850 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,230 tons. It is expected to show a steady and slight upward trend in the short term, and the steel mills' raw material replenishment rhythm is expected to accelerate later [3] Inventory - The accumulation speed of mine - end inventory has slowed down this week [3]