华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products will move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum was strong at a high level. The US December non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, which led to an increase in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - In the spot market, downstream procurement in East China is active due to low basis; trading sentiment in the Central Plains has improved, but there is little market supply; the South China market is hot, with tight arrivals, inventory reduction, and strong bullish sentiment among holders [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises dropped by 1 percentage point to 59.9%. Aluminum foil operating rate remained stable, while other processing materials declined to varying degrees [2] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The inventory at the end of December increased by nearly 15% compared to December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to the combination of increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high prices suppressing consumption [2] - Macro - sentiment boosts the price, but the domestic off - season continues with inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to high - price risks, macro - heat sustainability, and downstream feedback [3]