碳酸锂：情绪退潮区间震荡，成材，重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and it is necessary to focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday morning, the main lithium carbonate contract opened more than 7% higher, reaching 147,000 yuan/ton, then fell back to around 140,000 yuan/ton, with 420,000 lots traded and 506,500 lots in open interest, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest [3]. - The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - to - short ratio slightly decreased, and some funds took profits [3]. - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 133,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract narrowed, but it was still at a negative basis [3]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, with further release of production capacity, and the cost - side support continued to strengthen as upstream raw material prices continued to rise [4]. - Demand: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate was strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials was weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached new highs, providing a solid support for lithium carbonate demand [4]. Inventory - Last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the inventory depletion slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as the previous week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [4]. Policy - In 2026, the subsidy for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were taken to stabilize price fluctuations [4]. - On January 4th, the issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" by the State Council, combined with news of mine复产, still provided upward price drive, but market sentiment ebbed, and some funds took profits [4].