商品研究晨报：能源化工-20260108

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on market dynamics, fundamental data, and industry news [2][4]. - Overall, most futures are expected to show short - term fluctuations, with some facing supply - demand pressures and others influenced by cost, inventory, and macro - factors [10][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Conditions: Crude oil prices declined due to the expected increase in Venezuelan production. PX physical market showed limited improvement, and polyester sales were mixed [6][8][10]. - Trend and Suggestions: PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation with weakened industrial aspects. PTA is in a high - level oscillation with cost weakness. MEG has limited upside and remains under medium - term pressure [10][11]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: Rubber futures showed changes in price, volume, and open interest. Spot prices of some rubber types increased, and Thai raw material prices rose [12][13][14]. - Trend: Rubber is expected to oscillate, supported by rising raw material costs and improved production orders [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of synthetic rubber changed. Spot prices of related products increased, and butadiene prices rose [15]. - Trend: Synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, driven by improved spot trading and cost - push from butadiene [16][17]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of LLDPE changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [18]. - Trend: LLDPE shows a weak - stable basis. Supply - demand pressure may arise from high capacity and weakening demand [18][19]. PP - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PP changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [21]. - Trend: PP is boosted by macro - sentiment, but fundamental improvement is limited due to weak demand and high cost [21][22]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: Futures and spot prices of caustic soda are provided, with a negative basis [24]. - Trend: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of pulp changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [30]. - Trend: Pulp is expected to oscillate, with cost support and weak demand in a state of game [31][32]. Glass - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of glass changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest increased [34]. - Trend: Glass prices are stable, with limited sales improvement during the holiday [34]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of methanol changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [37]. - Trend: Methanol is expected to oscillate and decline, with coastal ports accumulating inventory and weakening basis [39]. Urea - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of urea changed. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [42]. - Trend: Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a potential mid - term upward shift in the center, supported by agricultural demand expectations [43][44]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, spreads, and profit margins of styrene changed. Spot prices and inventory levels are provided [45]. - Trend: Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with high valuation and potential short - selling opportunities [46]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of soda ash changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [51]. - Trend: The spot market of soda ash has little change, with high supply and weak demand [51]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of LPG and propylene changed. Spot prices and spreads are provided [56]. - Trend: LPG has a firm import cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. Propylene demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising [55][56]. PVC - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PVC changed [64]. - Trend: PVC's short - term rebound is difficult to sustain due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, but potential supply - side improvements may occur in the future [64][65]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [68]. - Trend: Fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation with support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced fluctuations, and the high - low sulfur spread in the spot market continues to narrow [68]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) changed [70]. - Trend: The freight rate peak has emerged. It is advisable to wait and see for the 02 contract and short at high prices for the 04 contract [70][79][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of short - fiber and bottle chip changed. Sales rates are provided [84]. - Trend: Both short - fiber and bottle chip are expected to oscillate in the short - term [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - Fundamental Data: Spot prices, cost - profit data, and futures prices of offset printing paper are provided [87]. - Trend: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable spot prices and poor market demand [88][90]. Pure Benzene - Fundamental Data: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of pure benzene changed. Inventory levels are provided [91]. - Trend: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increasing port inventory [92].