宏观情绪好转，板块整体偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views - Cotton: 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease with a slight increase in ending stocks; US cotton has inventory pressure in the short - term, but is in a low - valuation range in the long - term; domestic cotton production increases, demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward [2] - Sugar: 25/26 global sugar production is abundant with an excess situation; short - term decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted; long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic; domestic sugar supply pressure remains, and short - and medium - term prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, European demand improves, domestic demand is insufficient but shows marginal improvement; short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Market News and Important Data: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,035 yuan/ton yesterday, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous day; 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton; as of January 3, 2025/26 Brazilian cotton planting was 31.2% complete, up 6.1 percentage points from the previous period and 0.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated upward yesterday; globally, 25/26 cotton production and demand both decreased, and US cotton inventory pressure increased. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly, sales progress accelerated, demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks should be watched out for [2] Sugar - Market News and Important Data: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,281 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous day; Guangxi Nanning sugar spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar and molasses in December, a 2.8% increase from December 2024 [3] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated and closed higher yesterday; globally, 25/26 sugar production is abundant with an excess situation. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and supply pressure remains [3] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward, and short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Important Data: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,596 yuan/ton yesterday, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous day; Shandong Chilean silver star softwood pulp spot price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import wood pulp spot market was mainly strong with individual fluctuations [4] - Market Analysis: Pulp futures prices were narrowly sorted yesterday. Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European demand continues to improve, while domestic demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and downstream demand is expected to increase marginally [5] - Strategy: Neutral. Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand may show a mild recovery. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [6]