资金情绪主导，碳酸锂高位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of lithium carbonate is highly influenced by the news and there is over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term sharp increases may lead to a callback risk [3]. - The demand side has been exceeding expectations. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate enterprises has increased, and the restocking demands of energy storage and new energy vehicles have resonated. A temporary supply gap has supported the price increase, and industrial inventory has been continuously depleted. However, the short - term sharp increase in lithium carbonate has made downstream buyers cautious at high prices, and the pressure for long - position profit - taking in the futures market has increased [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 144,000 yuan/ton and closed at 142,300 yuan/ton, with a 4.54% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 420,407 lots, and the open interest was 506,520 lots (the previous day's open interest was 534,999 lots). The current basis is - 7,500 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 25,180 lots, with a change of 2,039 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. Lithium Carbonate Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 128,000 - 139,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 6,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 126,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 5,750 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,755 US dollars/ton, with a change of 75 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The current spot inventory is 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the smelter inventory is 17,667 tons, a decrease of 184 tons; the downstream inventory is 38,998 tons, a decrease of 894 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and the weekly output reaches 22,000 tons, a 1.2% increase compared to the previous period [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - Options: None [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4]