价格短期快速上涨抑制消费

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum doesn't change much, with consumption shifting from peak to off - peak season. High prices suppress actual consumption, and attention should be paid to the over - expected inventory increase after price hikes. The macro - direction is upward, but a post - sentiment - release correction should be watched for [6]. - The supply surplus situation of alumina remains unchanged. Social inventory is increasing, and price lacks continuous upward momentum. Overseas ore supply is expected to be in surplus, and there is a chance for sell - hedging after the rally [8]. Group 3: Summary by Category Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,930 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 410 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,130 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 205 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 24,280 yuan/ton, closed at 24,360 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,750 yuan/ton and a low of 24,065 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 639,637 lots, and positions were 230,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 684,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous period; warrant inventory was 87,930 tons, up 3,726 tons; LME aluminum inventory was 501,750 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 7, 2026, SMM alumina prices were 2,655 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 2,585 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,680 yuan/ton in Henan, 2,745 yuan/ton in Guangxi, 2,785 yuan/ton in Guizhou, and FOB price in Australia was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 7, 2026, the alumina main contract opened at 2,822 yuan/ton, closed at 2,938 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton (4.97%), with a high of 2,975 yuan/ton and a low of 2,822 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 1,854,026 lots, and positions were 494,082 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 7, 2026, Baotai's civil raw aluminum purchase price was 18,000 yuan/ton, and mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 18,300 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. ADC12 Baotai's quote was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - Aluminum alloy social inventory was 70,200 tons, and in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,880 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 120 yuan/ton [5]