光大期货软商品日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.31% to 64.86 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 1.83% to 15,035 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions increasing by 9,611 lots to 925,500 lots. Overseas macro disturbances are continuous, and the U.S. cotton futures price rose and then fell. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton continued to increase positions and rise, but the increase rate slowed down, and it opened high and closed low at night. The recent warm market sentiment and strong expectations are the main driving factors, and there are still things to look forward to from the policy - making level. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton still has upward momentum, but there may be some differences at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, there may still be some room for the cotton price to rise. Future concerns include the pre - Spring Festival restocking actions of downstream textile enterprises, macro - level news, and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy details usually announced around April 10th [2]. - White Sugar: As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan Province had crushed 3.461 million tons of sugarcane (2.8135 million tons in the same period of the previous season), produced 392,300 tons of sugar (326,900 tons in the same period of the previous season), with a sugar production rate of 11.34% (11.62% in the same period of the previous season), and produced 129 tons of alcohol (96 tons in the same period of the previous season). The cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 281,400 tons (267,100 tons in the same period last year), with a sugar sales rate of 71.72% (81.70% in the same period last year). The single - month sugar sales were 249,100 tons (234,400 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 110,900 tons (59,800 tons in the same period last year). The spot price of sugar rose, and the northern hemisphere's sugarcane crushing is progressing steadily with no new dominant factors. The domestic financial market and commodities have generally risen recently, and the sugar price has rebounded slightly, and it will still be affected by this sentiment in the short - term, showing a strong - side oscillation. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals recently, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking continues with fair transactions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.31% to 64.86 cents per pound, Zhengzhou cotton main contract rose 1.83% to 15,035 yuan per ton, positions increased by 9,611 lots to 925,500 lots. Market sentiment and policy expectations drive the price. Short - term upward momentum exists, but differences may occur at high levels. Medium - to - long - term upward space remains. Key concerns are downstream restocking, macro news, and subsidy policy details [2]. - White Sugar: Yunnan's sugar production and sales data are presented. Spot prices rose. The northern hemisphere's crushing is stable, and the domestic market sentiment boosts the sugar price. It will oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking continues [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 165 yuan, up 65 yuan; the main contract basis is 749 yuan, down 107 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,574 yuan, up 87 yuan; the national spot price is 15,784 yuan, up 73 yuan [3]. - White Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 27 yuan, up 7 yuan; the main contract basis is 89 yuan, down 12 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,350 yuan, up 10 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 5,370 yuan, up 10 yuan [3]. Market Information - Cotton: On January 7, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 7,049, an increase of 225 from the previous trading day, with 2,347 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions are provided, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data are also given [4]. - White Sugar: On January 7, the white sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,370 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan. The white sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 6,005, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 4,563 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipt and valid forecast of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipt and valid forecast of white sugar [7][9][11][13][15][16][18]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin: Resource - product research director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the white sugar industry, with many honors [20]. - Zhang Linglu: Resource - product analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, with many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen: Resource - product analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in the fundamental research of cotton and other varieties, with many awards [22].