现货企稳，成本端仍有提振

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, and the upstream operation rate has steadily increased. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH units still have the expectation of maintenance, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically. [2] - Downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally have resumed production. The overall operation rate of powder has increased, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to rise. [2] - Although the profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable and the operation rate is expected to remain stable, the operation rate of PO has slightly decreased due to the reduction of some units. In the future, propylene is expected to rise further, squeezing the downstream profitability, and the overall increase in the support of the demand side may be limited. [2] - The international oil price has回调, while the propane price remains strong and still provides support. The sharp rise in the futures prices of the coal series has also boosted the cost support of the olefin series. However, due to the limited improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals, the rebound space may be limited. [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand have improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. Driven by sentiment, the short - term market will mainly fluctuate strongly. Wait for the marginal unit maintenance. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The data includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis of propylene in East China and Shandong, the price difference between the propylene 03 - 04 contracts, the price difference between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China. [6][9][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operation Rate - The data involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefin production capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit. [18][21][28] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operation Rate - The data includes the production profit and operation rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone. [37][38][45] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The data contains the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder. [63]