美国将无限期控制委内石油销售

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term volatile and weak oil price, with a medium - term bearish allocation [4] Core Viewpoints - With clearer statements from US officials, Venezuelan crude oil will be controlled by the US in the future. The path for Venezuelan oil to turn from sanctioned oil to compliant oil is becoming clearer. The main trading logic in the market is that US Gulf refineries will absorb Venezuelan oil, squeezing the demand for Canadian heavy oil. Venezuelan oil shipments to China will decline significantly. The overall supply of sensitive oil is abundant, and the net effect after the Maduro incident is a decrease in compliant oil demand and an increase in medium - to - long - term production growth expectations, which is bearish for oil prices in the short and medium term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On January 8, Trump said Venezuela would use funds from the new oil agreement to buy US - made products [1] - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on the 7th declared the US would "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales, aiming to stabilize and increase production. The sales revenue will be deposited in a US - controlled account for the benefit of Venezuelans. He estimated a potential increase of 700,000 barrels per day in the medium - to - short - term [1][2] - Mexican President Cinbaum on the 7th denied sending more oil to Cuba after Maduro's arrest and said Mexico would be an important oil supplier to Cuba [1] - US Attorney General Bundy on the 7th issued a seizure order for the "BELLA 1" oil tanker transporting sanctioned oil [1] - US Secretary of State Rubio outlined a three - stage process in Venezuela: stabilizing the situation, the recovery stage, and the transition stage [1] - White House Press Secretary Levitt said Trump was not afraid to seize sanctioned oil tankers, even if it might strain relations with Russia [1] - After Trump announced Venezuela would "transfer" up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, Canadian crude oil prices in the US Gulf Coast tumbled. The discount of Canadian "Cold Lake" crude oil to WTI increased from $6.80 to $8.50 per barrel, and in Alberta, the discount of heavy crude oil widened from $13.90 to $14.10 per barrel [2] Investment Logic - The future control of Venezuelan oil by the US makes its path from sanctioned to compliant oil clearer. The market expects US Gulf refineries to absorb Venezuelan oil, squeezing Canadian heavy oil demand. Venezuelan oil shipments to China will drop, but overall sensitive oil supply is sufficient, leading to a decrease in compliant oil demand and an increase in medium - to - long - term production expectations, which is bearish for oil prices in the short and medium term [3] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a bearish allocation is recommended in the medium term [4] Risk - Downside risks include the achievement of a peace negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]