厂内库存基本持平

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go long on UR05 and short on UR09 when the spread is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas of urea were lifted, trading improved, the futures market fluctuated strongly, driving the spot purchasing sentiment. Spot prices rose slightly. Mainstream producers continued the policy of limited purchases. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January. The off - season storage procurement was in progress. The compound fertilizer sentiment cooled down but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted. Melamine had rigid demand. The in - factory inventory was basically flat and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd boosted the international urea market sentiment. The domestic export quota had no new news and subsequent export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 7, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea was 1750 yuan/ton in Henan (unchanged), 1750 yuan/ton in Shandong (+10), and 1760 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (+10). The small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (- 12), and in Jiangsu was - 30 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 7, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.29% (0.08% change). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 17.20 million tons (- 0.50) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - On January 7, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2, 2026 received 26 suppliers with a total tender volume of 3.62 billion tons. The lowest quotes from Koch were CFR 426.8 dollars/ton for the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton for the west coast, 5 - 8 dollars/ton higher than the previous tender. On January 7, 2026, the urea export profit was 843 yuan/ton (- 21) [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 7, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.89% (- 3.86%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 47.65% (- 10.42%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 17.20 million tons (- 0.50) [1]