化工日报：焦煤上涨带动，EG价格反弹-20260108

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Price Movement: The price of EG rebounded due to the increase in coking coal prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,879 yuan/ton (up 41 yuan/ton, or +1.07% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,713 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/ton, or +0.90% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was -139 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Production Profit: The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$83/ton (up $10/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was -867 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton) [1]. - Inventory: According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Domestically, the syngas - based production load has not decreased significantly, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to over 70%. There is still significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, after the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February. On the demand side, weaving orders have weakened, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has also decreased due to weakening profitability [2]. - Strategies: - Single - side: Neutral. Although the current price is not high, the downstream hidden inventory has reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. The pressure of new production capacity and inventory accumulation from January to February is still large, limiting the rebound space. - Inter - period: Reverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605. - Inter - variety: None [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,879 yuan/ton (up 41 yuan/ton, or +1.07% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,713 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/ton, or +0.90% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was -139 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$83/ton (up $10/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was -867 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton). The domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to over 70% [1][2]. International Price Difference The report does not provide specific analysis content for international price differences, only mentions a chart of "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Weaving orders have weakened on the margin, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has also decreased due to weakening profitability [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2].