库存持续积压，多晶硅震荡下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. With both supply and demand decreasing, along with the upward price transmission effects of coking coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. The risk - control measure of raising the margin by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased the trading threshold and dampened market sentiment. Inventory backlog and supply - side pressure may be the reasons for the high - price transactions being scarce and the price decline on that day [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 9,050 yuan per ton and closed at 8,980 yuan per ton, a change of 95 yuan per ton (1.07%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 244,734 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 6, 2026, was 10,799 lots, a change of 112 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan per ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan per ton. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan per ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan per ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 557,000 tons, a change of 0.36% from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan per ton. Recently, an orange pollution alert was issued in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and the expected supply contraction reduced short - term supply pressure and supported price increases. The weekly output of organic silicon enterprises changed little. Against the background of emission reduction and price support, organic silicon monomer enterprises began to gradually reduce production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - cut state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight decline [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 59,400 yuan per ton and closing at 58,300 yuan per ton, a change of - 2.13% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 67,800 lots (72,353 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 20,581 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 50.00 - 57.00 yuan per kilogram, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan per kilogram. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (unit not specified), a change of 0.90% month - on - month, silicon wafer inventory was 23.19 GW, a change of 6.92% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a change of - 5.10% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.18 GW, a change of - 1.45% month - on - month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.38 yuan per piece, N - type 210mm was 1.68 yuan per piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.48 yuan per piece [4]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan per watt; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan per watt; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan per watt; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan per watt; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.39 yuan per watt; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan per watt [4][5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan per watt, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan per watt, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan per watt, and N - type was 0.70 - 0.72 yuan per watt [5]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate within the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].