Guoxin Securities·2026-01-08 03:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The recent strength of the insurance sector, represented by the company, is driven by a combination of policy support, macroeconomic changes, fundamentals, and market capital flows [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a shift in market style from high-growth stocks to value stocks, with its low valuation and high dividend yield providing defensive value [14][26] - The company's strategic focus on "comprehensive finance + ecosystem" aligns well with the aging economy and domestic demand themes, creating a solid second growth curve [5][15] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Since December 2025, the A-share insurance sector has seen a maximum monthly increase of 20%, with the company achieving a near four-year high [2] - The appreciation of the RMB has attracted foreign capital to reallocate to core Chinese assets, with the company being a key choice due to its liquidity and low valuation [3][11] Internal and External Factors - Internally, the high-quality development of public funds is expected to lead to a shift from growth to value style by 2026, increasing demand for the company's low valuation and high dividend attributes [3][8] - Externally, the strategic allocation of overseas capital to Chinese assets is anticipated to rise, benefiting stable and high-dividend companies like the company [4][11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in health and wellness, which aligns with the aging population's needs and domestic consumption policies, enhancing the value of its insurance products [15][22] - The integration of AI technology into its operations is expected to improve efficiency and service quality, further solidifying its competitive advantage [22][23] Financial Projections - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 to 2027 at 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY per share, with current price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios of 0.71, 0.65, and 0.59x [3][26] - The expected annual growth rate of the company's embedded value (EV) over the next three years is approximately 11%, with a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 [3][26]