现货维持贴水报价，铜价出现回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Options: Sell put options [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is currently facing tight supply at the mine end, increased refined copper exports due to foreign market premiums, and relatively reluctant sales of scrap copper. However, demand is relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors. If copper prices decline, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is expected to increase. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct batch and dip - buying hedging between 98,000 yuan/ton and 98,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the short - term decline of copper varieties caused by the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was 104,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 103,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from the previous trading day's closing price. The opening price of the main SHFE copper contract in the night session was 103,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.98% from the afternoon closing price [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spot price range was 102,830 - 103,990 yuan/ton. It is expected that today's spot will still be mainly traded at a discount, and the discount may narrow slightly as the delivery approaches [2]. 3.3 Important News - Domestic: As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3579 trillion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 billion US dollars, reaching a new high since December 2015. The gold reserve was 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 ounces, increasing for the 14th consecutive month [3]. - Overseas: In December 2025 in the US, the ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. In November 2025, the JOLTS job openings in the US dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 [3]. 3.4 Supply Side - Mining End: In December 2025, the average processing fee of domestic southern crude copper was reported at 1,500 yuan/ton, and the northern average was 1,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The latest weekly average processing fee of southern crude copper has reached 2,000 yuan/ton. SMM expects that the crude copper market in January 2026 will remain loose, and the processing fees will remain high [4]. - Smelting and Import: Fitch's BMI maintains the average copper price forecast for 2026 at 11,000 US dollars/ton, stating that supply shortages, green - transition demand, and the Fed's interest - rate cuts will support copper prices. BMI expects the global refined copper production growth rate to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may face a shortage [4]. 3.5 Demand Side - The Department of Industry and Information Technology of Shandong Province and other departments jointly issued the "Stable Growth Work Plan for the Non - ferrous Metals Industry in Shandong Province", aiming to break through key technologies such as high - quality alumina, new cathode preparation, and high - end rolled copper foil [5]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,525 tons to 143,225 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 3,203 tons to 96,474 tons. On January 7, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 257,600 tons, with a change of 18,700 tons compared with the previous week [5].