贵金属数据日报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. The silver price may face significant volatility risks, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - 15:00 Price on January 7, 2026: London gold spot was $4444.75/ounce, London silver spot was $78.99/ounce, COMEX gold was $4455.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $78.83/ounce, AU2602 was 998.90 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 19287.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 996.29 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19264.00 yuan/kilogram. Compared with January 6, 2026, the price changes were - 0.5%, 0.0%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.6%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% respectively [3] - Spread/Ratio: On January 7, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.61 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 23 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 6.70 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 777 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 51.79, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 56.51, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.50 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was 3 yuan/kilogram. The price changes compared with January 6, 2026 were - 2.6%, - 309.1%, 23.6%, 32.9%, 0.3%, - 0.6%, 3.3%, and - 160.0% respectively [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of January 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1067.13 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16118.15581 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275592 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 44419 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 231173 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 50506 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 20443 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 30063 contracts. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.19%, - 1.44%, - 5.02%, - 10.19%, - 3.96%, - 8.57%, 5.60%, and - 16.22% respectively [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 97653.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 553429.00 kilograms. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 4.82% respectively. On January 6, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36403452 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449211255 troy ounces. Compared with January 5, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and - 0.07% respectively [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 7, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.02, the US dollar index was 98.60, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, the VIX was 14.75, the S&P 500 was 6944.82, and NYMEX crude oil was 56.97. Compared with January 6, 2026, the changes were 0.02%, 0.28%, 0.29%, 0.24%, - 1.01%, 0.62%, and - 2.37% respectively [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 7, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.17% to 998.9 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.07% to 19290 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The increase in the possibility of geopolitical risk spill - over and the risk - aversion demand boosted the prices of precious metals. The main contract of silver futures broke through the 2000 yuan/kilogram mark and reached a new high. Then, due to profit - taking pressure and market concerns about the BO0H index adjustment, the prices of precious metals fell from their highs. The weakening of the domestic silver spot premium and the positive structure of silver TV and futures also suppressed the upward trend of the silver price. However, the People's Bank of China's continuous gold reserve increase for 14 months and the lower - than - expected US ADP data in December supported the prices of precious metals [4] 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term View - In the medium and long term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization trends. The US huge debt and the weakened independence of the Fed will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [5]