碳酸锂数据日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, lithium prices still face downward pressure, and price risks should be watched out for. In the medium to long term, the strong upstream price - holding intention verifies the assumption of strong terminal demand, which provides support for prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds and Minerals - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 133,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 6,000 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 5,750 yuan [1] - For lithium ore, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 1,770 yuan, with a change of 130 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 2,575 yuan, with a change of 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,825 yuan, with a change of 110 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 13,775 yuan, with a change of 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 15,450 yuan, with a change of 525 yuan [1][2] Futures Contract - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 139,960 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.52%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 139,560 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.95%; lithium carbonate 2603 is not given the closing price but has a daily increase of 5.01%; lithium carbonate 2604 is 141,360 yuan, with a daily increase of 5.13%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 142,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.54% [1] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 48,980 yuan, with a change of 1,455 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 184,800 yuan, with a change of 5,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 164,700 yuan, with a change of 4,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 165,000 yuan, with a change of 4,300 yuan [2] Price Spread - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, with a change of 250 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 8,800 yuan, with a change of 1,640 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, with a change of 220 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,800 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 109,605 tons, with a change of - 168 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is not fully given; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 38,998 tons, with a change of - 894 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 52,940 tons, with a change of 910 tons; the registered warehouse receipts in January (daily, tons) is 25,180 tons, with a change of 2,039 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 132,339 yuan, with a profit of - 694 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 123,199 yuan, with a profit of 5,161 yuan [3] Production Line Maintenance - Hunan Yueneng plans to carry out maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the output of lithium salt cathode materials by 15,000 - 35,000 tons. Wanrun New Energy started to reduce production and carry out maintenance on some production lines as scheduled from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the output of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [3]