新能源及有色金属日报：现货升水保持强势-20260108

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, with strong premium quotes from traders. Although downstream procurement is hesitant due to high prices, rigid demand still exists. The TC of domestic zinc mines has stopped falling, while that of imported mines is still slightly declining. After winter storage, smelters' raw material inventories have increased, but the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting losses of domestic smelters have widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month-on-month. There is a possibility that the output in January may fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the market is optimistic about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited. [4] 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.67/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187,735 lots, and the open interest was 91,603 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,145 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day. [3]