新能源及有色金属日报：下游畏高拒采，铅价出现回落-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Spot - On January 7, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.60/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,530 yuan/ton and closed at 17,830 yuan/ton, a change of 310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,341 lots, a change of 26,456 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 52,009 lots, a change of 1,009 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,860 yuan/ton and a low of 17,530 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for rigid demand transactions, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Guangdong, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes' discount narrowed to a discount of 300 - 280 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory. Due to the continuous rise of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the overall market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On January 7, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of January 7, the LME lead inventory was 230,425 tons, a change of - 2,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]