生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: The global sugar market remains in a state of oversupply, with India and Thailand experiencing a sugar surplus. In the domestic market, there are concerns about a decline in sugar production in Guangxi, leading to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. The SR2605 contract's support level is around 5000 - 5030, and the pressure level is around 5300 - 5330 [2]. - Pulp: Terminal users have accepted the price increases led by suppliers, causing both softwood and hardwood pulp prices to rise. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is increasing, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the global market for bleached softwood kraft pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The profitability of paper mills is low, and their ability to absorb high - priced pulp may be limited. In the short term, prices will operate in a high - range [2]. - Double - offset Paper: After the New Year's Day holiday, the spot market for double - offset paper remained stable. The paper mill's inventory is at a high level, and the improvement in demand alone is not enough to significantly change the supply - demand situation. The futures price may follow the basis, and the upward space may be limited [6]. - Cotton: The external market has limited drivers, and the futures price is in the process of bottom - building. In the domestic market, there is an expectation of tight supply at the end of the year, a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton production, and support from related substitutes. The 05 contract is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term [9]. - Apples: The apple 2605 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, an unsatisfactory high - quality fruit rate, and rising acquisition prices. However, it also faces the contradiction between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, and is expected to remain in a high - range [10]. - Jujubes: The jujube market has shifted from a state of high premium to a state of discount relative to the spot market, and the contradiction between futures and spot prices has been alleviated. The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the expectation of a production reduction has decreased [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: For the apple 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200. For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [20]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For the sugar 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold short - term long positions lightly, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400. For the pulp 2605 contract, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach within the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5400 and a pressure range of 5600 - 5800. For the double - offset paper 2605 contract, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 3900 - 4000 and a pressure range of 4200 - 4300. For the cotton 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons. The prices in the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remained stable, and the shipment in the sales areas was stable [21][22][23]. - Jujube Market: As of the week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is gradually increasing. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [24]. - Sugar Market: As of December 31, 2025, Indian sugar mills had crushed 133.921 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The sugar production reached 11.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase. In Thailand, from the 2025/26 sugar - making season to December 27, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%. In China, as of January 7, 2026, 41 sugar mills in Yunnan had started crushing, 3 more than the same period last year. All 19 sugar mills in Guangdong had started crushing [27][28]. - Pulp Market: In December, the global pulp shipment volume continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, and the shipment volume to China decreased more than the global average. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating. Suzano, APRIL, and Eldorado have raised the prices of BHK pulp [31]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the overall inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [32]. - Cotton Market: In November 2025, Turkey imported 57,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 32.2% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. As of January 3, 2026, the cotton planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 31.2% completed. As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6675 million tons, accounting for 85.8% of the annual estimated output [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583, a daily decrease of 31 or 0.32%. The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract was 9150, a daily increase of 175 or 1.95%. The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5281, a daily increase of 22 or 0.42%. The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5596, a daily decrease of 16 or 0.29%. The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15035, a daily increase of 180 or 1.21% [34]. - Spot Market Review: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 950 yuan. The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan. The spot price of cotton was 15784 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1154 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 5 - 10 spread of apples is 1109, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 1487. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 90, with a month - on - month increase of 25 and a year - on - year decrease of 630. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 26, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 48. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton is - 190, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2263, a month - on - month increase of 158 and a year - on - year decrease of 258. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 135506, a month - on - month increase of 4452 and a year - on - year decrease of 203230. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7049, a month - on - month increase of 225 and a year - on - year increase of 2971 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [89].