央行黄金储备持续增长，美国“小非农”数据升温

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the gold price remains in a high-level oscillation. With central bank gold purchases providing non-speculative demand support, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern in the near term. The Au2602 contract may oscillate between 990 yuan/gram and 1015 yuan/gram [8]. - The silver price has corrected, and it is slightly weaker than gold due to the recovery of risk sentiment. However, the silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18,500 yuan/kilogram and 20,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten-year high, and gold reserves increased for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion month-on-month, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month-on-month [1]. - Overseas, the US "small non-farm" data in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. ADP data indicated that private-sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. In addition, US job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1006.00 yuan/gram and closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.61% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 1002.20 yuan/gram, up 0.33% from the afternoon close [2]. - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,460.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,172,110 lots, and the open interest was 273,460 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,103 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,020 yuan/kilogram, down 1.40% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 7, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.148%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.678%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract on January 7, 2026, long positions decreased by 3,185 lots, and short positions decreased by 980 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 325,966 lots, up 5.79% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 103 lots, and short positions decreased by 7,302 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,244,344 lots, up 12.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - For precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,118 tons, down 236 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.62 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,003.04 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 51.78, up 0.23% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.74, down 4.00% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 63,134 kilograms, up 42.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 823,590 kilograms, down 6.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,130 kilograms [7].