沪镍不锈钢强势涨停，现货"有价无市"隐现分化

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is influenced by the tense situation in Venezuela and Indonesian policies, with funds flowing into the nickel sector, causing the price of the Shanghai nickel futures contract to hit a new high since June 2024. Although the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, it is expected to remain strong due to favorable policies from Indonesia and attention from profitable funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by the cost transmission of the sharp rise in Shanghai nickel and Indonesian nickel export restrictions. The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 143,500 yuan/ton and closed at 147,720 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,132,256 (+393,922) lots, and the open interest was 132,955 (+1,474) lots. The price hit a new high since June 2024, and the bullish sentiment of funds reached a climax [1]. - Nickel Ore: The nickel ore market has limited resources, and the price is stable with an upward trend. The 1.25 - grade nickel ore tender in the Philippines' Benguet mine was settled at $32.5, up from the previous level. In Indonesia, the first - phase domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the second - phase domestic trade base price is expected to rise by $3 - 5 [1]. - Spot: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and spot trading was cold. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,776 (-612) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 275,634 (+20,088) tons [2]. Strategy - The operation strategy is mainly range trading for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On January 7, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,450 yuan/ton and closed at 14,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 288,456 (+151,355) lots, and the open interest was 112,880 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the cost transmission of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policies, it showed a one - way upward trend and closed at the daily limit. The spot price increased synchronously, but the market was in a state of "high price but few transactions" [4]. - Spot: The futures price hit the daily limit, and the spot price increased significantly. The downstream inquiry was active, but the transaction was cautious. Some steel mills suspended orders. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation. The operation strategy is neutral for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].