有色商品日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined, with losses in domestic refined copper imports. The recent economic and employment data in the US show signs of economic recovery since the government shutdown in November, but the future guidance remains weak. Due to the persistently high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed down, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. After an orderly adjustment, it is beneficial for the subsequent market development, and the sustainability should be monitored [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weakening trend. The inventory of aluminum ore is high, and the short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. The news of the National Development and Reform Commission encouraging industrial restructuring and integration has reduced the downward - driving force on the futures market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has led to a continuous rise in aluminum prices. Currently, there is a certain inventory accumulation pressure, and the divergence between macro and micro factors poses new challenges to the further rise of aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the precious metal's popularity and the feedback from downstream sentiment [1][3]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The recent rapid rise in nickel prices is mainly affected by market sentiment and Indonesian policies. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, the output of primary nickel has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on the futures price. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of Indonesian policies and market sentiment, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment and consider the opportunity of going long on forward contracts at low prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Key Points | | --- | --- | | Copper | - Macro: US economic and employment data show recovery since November, but future guidance is weak.
   - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,256 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,203 tons, and BC copper remained at 1,053 tons.
   - Demand: Terminal orders slowed due to high prices, with rigid procurement demand.
   - Market: After an orderly adjustment, it benefits subsequent market development [1]. | | Aluminum | - Futures: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices declined overnight.
   - Spot: SMM alumina price fell, aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed, and some aluminum product processing fees changed.
   - Market: Ore inventory is high, short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. Policy news reduces downward - driving force, and Fed rate - cut expectation drives up aluminum prices. There is inventory accumulation pressure and challenges to further price increases [1][3]. | | Nickel | - Price: LME nickel fell 4.21%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.44%.
   - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 20,088 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 612 tons.
   - News: Indonesian nickel production plan may decrease in 2026, some mines are suspended, and the domestic trade benchmark price rose slightly.
   - Market: Price rise is affected by sentiment and policies, and hedging demand may pressure prices. Chasing high is risky, and long - term low - price buying opportunities can be considered [4]. | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased, the price of 1 bright scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,203 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [6]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased, and the prices of some lead products also increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 909 tons [6]. - Aluminum: The prices of无锡 and南海 aluminum increased, and the prices of some raw materials decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,726 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [7]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased, and the prices of some nickel products changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 612 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 2,122 tons [7]. - Zinc: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%, and the prices of some zinc products decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.52 million tons [9]. - Tin: The主力 settlement price increased by 4.5%, and the prices of some tin products increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased by 541 tons [9]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2026 [15][20][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the "Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award" for four consecutive years [49]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides services such as policy interpretation and risk management for clients [49]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and provides policy interpretation and writes in - depth reports [50].