碳酸锂日报（2026年1月8日）-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 7, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 4.54% to 142,300 yuan/ton, and spot prices of various lithium products also increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, but the January 2026 output is expected to decline. The output of downstream materials and batteries is mostly expected to decline, and the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. Considering geopolitical, policy factors and inventory structure, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to rise rather than fall [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Price Changes: On January 7, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 4.54% to 142,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 133,500 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate by 5,750 yuan/ton to 130,000 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) by 6,500 yuan/ton to 124,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,039 tons to 25,180 tons [3]. - Supply - side Situation: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the output is expected to decline 1.2% to 97,970 tons, with different trends in different production methods [3]. - Demand - side Situation: In January 2026, the output of ternary materials is expected to decline 4.43% to 78,180 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline 10.03% to 363,400 tons. The output of ternary power batteries is expected to decline 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, and iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decline 9.77% to 90.01 GWh, while iron - lithium energy storage batteries is expected to increase 0.99% to 63.15 GWh [3]. - Inventory - side Situation: The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, with different changes in different links [3]. - Price Outlook: Due to geopolitical and policy factors, there are concerns about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the industrial pricing mechanism adjustment progresses smoothly, the production of cathode materials may need to be revised upwards, and price increases can be more smoothly transferred to downstream. Considering the inventory structure and long - term bullish trading logic, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased on January 7, 2026. The prices of various lithium ores, lithium salts, and related materials also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between different lithium products also changed, such as the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [5]. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 to 2026 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of lithium metal, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2026 [12][13][14]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between different lithium products from 2024 to 2026, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [19][20]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [25][26][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May 2025 to December 2025 [37][38][39]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [42][43].