光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260108

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for urea, soda ash, and glass [1] Group 2: Core Views - For urea, on Wednesday, the spot market continued to strengthen with some mainstream regional prices rising by 10 yuan/ton. The daily output was 20.4 tons, remaining stable. Supply is expected to increase after mid - month. Demand chasing sentiment is cautious with a产销率 in the 10% - 30% range. The inventory increased slightly by 0.29%. The strong coal in the futures market supports the urea futures price. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [1] - For soda ash, on Wednesday, the futures price rose significantly while the spot price was stable with some manufacturers willing to raise prices. The industry's maintenance is basically over with an 84.7% operating rate. Supply will increase. Demand sentiment improved with more active downstream purchasing, but the rigid demand is still not optimistic. The strong coal and macro - policy factors support the futures price. It is expected to be strong in the short term with increased volatility [1] - For glass, on Wednesday, both the futures and spot prices rose significantly. The daily melting volume is around 15.15 tons. The 产销率 in some regions reached 180% - 190%. The short - term spot trading supports price increases, but the rigid demand faces pressure as the Spring Festival approaches. The strong coal in the futures market drives the glass futures price. It is expected to be strong in the short term with a game between internal and external factors [1] Group 3: Market Information - Urea - On January 7, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 12,619, unchanged from the previous day, with 333 valid forecasts [4] - On January 7, the urea industry's daily output was 20.04 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous day and an increase of 2.58 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 82.86%, a 4.89 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [4] - On January 7, the small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 1750 yuan/ton (Shandong + 10, Hebei + 10, Anhui + 10, Jiangsu 1760 + 10), and in山西 it was 1620 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] Group 4: Market Information - Soda Ash & Glass - On January 7, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 5276, an increase of 500 from the previous day, with 878 valid forecasts. The glass futures warehouse receipts were 1676, unchanged from the previous day [6] - On January 7, the soda ash spot prices varied by region. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton [6] - On January 7, the soda ash industry's operating rate was 84.7%, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1081 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.16 tons [7] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many analyst awards [24] - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for urea, soda ash, and glass research. She has won many honors in relevant fields [24] - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the research of cotton, cotton yarn, ferroalloys, etc. He has also won relevant awards [24]