固定收益|点评报告：如何看待债市的不可能三角

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market decline is due to the constraint of the "impossible triangle," and before the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based opportunity. It is expected that the long - end yield will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The long - end yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2.2% - 2.4%, and the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity in the second half of the first quarter of 2026 [2][8][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Bond Market's "Impossible Triangle" Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has been falling continuously. After the People's Bank of China's unexpected "hawkish" Treasury bond trading operation in November 2025, the market is worried about the carrying pressure of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and the supply of ultra - long bonds has become the core contradiction. From early November 2025 to January 7, 2026, the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond rose by about 20 basis points, and the price of the ultra - long - term Treasury bond futures (TL) fell by nearly 6 yuan. The current market decline is due to the "impossible triangle" constraint, that is, the following three cannot hold simultaneously: fiscal policy continues to lengthen the debt issuance duration, the central bank does not buy long - duration Treasury bonds, and does not change the interest - rate risk sensitivity index restrictions for banks [4][15]. 3.2 Outlook for the People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading Operations in 2026 It is expected that the People's Bank of China will continue to mainly buy short - duration Treasury bonds, maintaining a "high - frequency and small - volume" monthly operation mode, and guiding the market to reduce irrational expectations and excessive attention to this tool. Treasury bond trading will return to a normal and regular liquidity management tool, and its impact on the bond market will be neutral. Overseas experience shows that large - scale purchases of long - term bonds usually occur when the policy rate drops to a very low level or even zero. Since the domestic policy rate still has a 140 - basis - point space, it is too early for unconventional policies. The current Treasury bond trading operations of the Chinese central bank are more similar to Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) rather than Quantitative Easing (QE) [5][19][20]. 3.3 Outlook for Fiscal Debt Issuance Duration in 2026 Theoretically, when interest rates continue to adjust, local governments will shorten the debt issuance duration. However, this process may face two problems. First, it is a slow process for local governments to actively shorten the duration. The proportion of new local bonds in the stock of local bonds is not high, and the increase in interest expenditure caused by long - duration debt issuance is not significant in the short term, so the possibility of local governments significantly shortening the duration in the short term is low. Second, the term arrangement of local government bond issuance has high flexibility, and the Ministry of Finance does not restrict the scale and quantity of long - term local bond issuance. Therefore, the overall duration of local government stock debt is difficult to significantly shorten in a short time [23]. 3.4 Views on Adjusting Banks' Interest - Rate Sensitivity Indicators Although the adjustment of interest - rate sensitivity indicators can increase the bond - allocation capacity of large banks to some extent, the maturity mismatch trend between the asset and liability ends of banks has been deepening in recent years, and the adjustment of indicators is difficult to significantly expand the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds. According to the revision of the regulatory standards for interest - rate risk in the banking book by the Basel Committee in July 2024, the interest - rate parallel upward shock parameter should be lowered from 250BP to 225BP. Based on the data of the six major banks at the end of 2024, this parameter adjustment can release about 1.23% of the indicator space on average, corresponding to about 172.2 billion yuan of Tier - 1 capital. In the scenario of still considering a 250 - basis - point extreme shock and calculating based on the modified duration of 8.35 years of the stock local government bonds, it is expected to add about 824.568 billion yuan of bond - allocation capacity for large banks. However, the maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities of banks is still deepening, with the liability side showing a trend of current - account and non - bank deposits, and the asset side showing a long - term trend, so the ability of banks to undertake long - term bonds is still limited [35]. 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market The bond market still faces the constraint of the "impossible triangle." Before the supply narrative of ultra - long bonds is fully priced, there is no obvious opportunity to bottom - fish in the bond market. The view of a weak and volatile long - end yield is maintained, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond may be further adjusted to 2.4%. After the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity, which may occur in the second half of the first quarter of 2026. At that time, the dynamic balance among fiscal debt issuance rhythm, central bank operation attitude, and bank allocation behavior will be the key to determining the market direction [8][41].