煤炭期价涨幅明显，情绪提振盘面延续上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term market sentiment. PE and PP prices have continued to rebound, but the improvement in their supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. PE is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with inventory reduction pressure. PP has a supply reduction expectation, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L main contract closed at 6,642 yuan/ton (+63), PP main contract at 6,486 yuan/ton (+63). LL North China spot was 6,500 yuan/ton (+130), LL East China spot at 6,530 yuan/ton (+40), PP East China spot at 6,250 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 142 yuan/ton (+67), LL East China basis - 112 yuan/ton (-23), PP East China basis - 236 yuan/ton (-33) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP operating rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was 174.8 yuan/ton (+90.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 335.2 yuan/ton (+90.8), PDH - made PP production profit was - 815.4 yuan/ton (-23.8) [1]. - Import and Export: LL import profit was 200.9 yuan/ton (+11.8), PP import profit was - 279.2 yuan/ton (+31.8), PP export profit was - 31.5 US dollars/ton (-4.0) [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - PE: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term sentiment. However, the improvement in PE's supply - demand fundamentals is limited. The supply pressure still exists due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand is weak as it is in the off - season. The pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand continues, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [3]. - PP: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has led to a warmer market sentiment. The price has continued to rebound due to supply reduction expectation and cost support. The supply is expected to decrease due to more temporary maintenance, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are recommended to be on the sidelines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, but the geopolitical situation has intensified cost - side disturbances. The price continues to be relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [5]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [5].