工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,980 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.07%, and the open interest increasing by 10,123 lots to 245,000 lots. Polysilicon showed a volatile and weaker trend, with the main contract 2605 closing at 58,300 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.13%, and the open interest decreasing by 4,553 lots to 67,800 lots [2]. - The production center of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection, it cannot offset the decline in demand. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and one can consider short - selling on rebounds [2]. - In January, industry self - discipline and joint production cuts of silicon materials are expected to lead to an unexpected reduction in polysilicon supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened [2]. - Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, downstream receiving sentiment, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected supply reduction in January [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,900 yuan/ton on January 6 to 8,980 yuan/ton on January 7, a rise of 80 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 59,365 yuan/ton on January 6 to 58,300 yuan/ton on January 7, a decline of 1,065 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 5,865 yuan/ton to - 4,800 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 112 to 10,799, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,340, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - Inventory: Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and DMC [21][24]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [34][35].