油脂基本面符合市场预期，盘面震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil data in Southeast Asia has been gradually released, showing that the palm oil production in Southeast Asia in 2025 remained at a relatively high level, which met market expectations, and the market fluctuated [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,562 yuan/ton, a change of +62 yuan or +0.73% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,958 yuan/ton, a change of +46 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,095 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan or -0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P05 - 62 yuan, a change of -62 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,330 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 372 yuan, a change of -26 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.30%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [1] Market News Palm Oil Production Forecast - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. The annual palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [2] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. The production in November dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decline from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% increase year - on - year [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons, the same as the previous update [2] Market Conditions - As of the mid - day break, the March palm oil futures on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) rose 0.4% to 4,004 ringgit/ton, and once rose 0.9% to 4,024 ringgit/ton during the session. CBOT March soybean oil rose 0.2% to 49.51 cents/pound. The palm oil 2605 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.2% to 8,518 yuan/ton, and the May soybean oil rose 0.4% to 7,942 yuan/ton [2] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 5 increased by 31% month - on - month. The December inventory may have climbed for the 10th consecutive month, reaching a 7 - year high of 2.99 million tons [2] Outlook - Despite the surge in exports at the beginning of January and the expected significant decline in production, with the inventory approaching 3 million tons and weak demand, palm oil is difficult to recover significantly. The expected strengthening of the ringgit in the middle of the year and the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans are negative factors for palm oil demand [2]