Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current commodity futures market rally is mainly driven by funds rather than fundamental improvements. The market may remain strong in the short - term but the upward pace will slow and volatility will increase. In the long - run, different sectors have different outlooks [2]. - The RMB exchange rate's upward trend is marginally slowing. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, while import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [5]. - The upward momentum of the stock index is weakening, and it may adjust in the short - term, but the overall trend is expected to be strong this month [6]. - Treasury bonds still need to find a bottom in the short - term, and mid - term long positions can continue to be held [7]. - The spot price of container shipping to Europe shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short - term [11]. - For lithium carbonate, beware of price fluctuations caused by long - position profit - taking in the short - term, but there are still opportunities for long - term layout [14]. - For industrial silicon, beware of cost - side price fluctuations and short - term correction risks; for polysilicon, pay attention to the sustainability of price increases and terminal bid - winning situations [16]. - For copper, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range, and do not recommend new long positions above 100,000. For zinc, it will maintain high - level volatility in the short - term. For nickel - stainless steel, it may be strong in the short - term but beware of supply - side risks. For tin, it will maintain high - level volatility. For lead, it will fluctuate [19][21][23][24][25]. - For oilseeds, the outer market is weakly volatile, and the inner - market near - month contracts may rebound. For oils and fats, they will be in wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [27][28]. - For asphalt, short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances [30]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation remains, but beware of short - term correction risks. For gold and silver, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the long - term trend is upward [34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the current market is neutral - to - bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see or try light - position long - buying strategies [38][39]. - For LPG, pay attention to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance. For PTA - PX, the supply - demand pattern is good, but do not chase high prices. For MEG - bottle chips, the market is difficult to break downward in the short - term but is under long - term over - supply pressure. For methanol, it is likely to start an upward - trending and volatile phase. For PP, the short - term fundamentals are improving. For PE, the bottom is rising, but pay attention to the approaching Spring Festival. For urea, consider buying long - term contracts. For soda ash, glass, and caustic soda, they are affected by sentiment and have different fundamentals. For propylene, the price may rise due to cost support but pay attention to risks [41][45][47][49][52][55][57][58][59][60][61]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price will fluctuate, and it is strongly volatile in the short - term. For iron ore, the short - term price is overbought, and it is advisable to reduce long positions. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the winter storage inventory transfer. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are affected by news and are strongly volatile in the short - term [63][65][67][70]. - For live pigs, the price will fluctuate narrowly. For cotton, pay attention to policy adjustments and consider long - position layout at low prices. For sugar, the short - term price is strongly volatile. For eggs, the price may remain strongly volatile. For red dates, the price will be in low - level fluctuations. For logs, use a range - trading strategy [73][76][78][80][81][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Market Information: The PBOC has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The SHFE has adjusted the trading margin ratio and price limit range of silver futures. The US ADP employment data in December is lower than expected, while the ISM services PMI is at a high level. The preliminary value of the Eurozone CPI in December 2025 slows to 2% [1]. - Core Judgments and Conduction Logic: The current commodity market rally is mainly driven by funds. The market may remain strong in the short - term, but different sectors have different long - term outlooks [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate's upward trend is marginally slowing. Export and import enterprises are given different exchange - rate management strategies [3][5]. - Stock Index: The upward momentum of the stock index is weakening, and it may adjust in the short - term, but the overall trend is expected to be strong this month [6]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds still need to find a bottom in the short - term, and mid - term long positions can continue to be held [6][7]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The spot price shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short - term [8][11]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: Beware of short - term price fluctuations caused by long - position profit - taking, but there are still long - term layout opportunities [14]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: For industrial silicon, beware of cost - side price fluctuations and short - term correction risks; for polysilicon, pay attention to the sustainability of price increases and terminal bid - winning situations [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range, and do not recommend new long positions above 100,000 [19][20]. - Zinc: It will maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [21]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: It may be strong in the short - term but beware of supply - side risks [23]. - Tin: It will maintain high - level volatility [24]. - Lead: It will fluctuate [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The outer market is weakly volatile, and the inner - market near - month contracts may rebound [26][27]. - Oils and Fats: They will be in wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, and pay attention to the results of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China for rapeseed oil [28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - Asphalt: Short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances [30]. Precious Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The long - term bull market foundation remains, but beware of short - term correction risks [33][34]. - Gold & Silver: They are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the long - term trend is upward [35][36]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The current market is neutral - to - bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see or try light - position long - buying strategies [38][39]. - LPG: Pay attention to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [41]. - PTA - PX: The supply - demand pattern is good, but do not chase high prices [45]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The market is difficult to break downward in the short - term but is under long - term over - supply pressure [47]. - Methanol: It is likely to start an upward - trending and volatile phase [49]. - PP: The short - term fundamentals are improving [52]. - PE: The bottom is rising, but pay attention to the approaching Spring Festival [55]. - Urea: Consider buying long - term contracts [57]. - Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda: They are affected by sentiment and have different fundamentals [58][59][60]. - Propylene: The price may rise due to cost support but pay attention to risks [61]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils: The price will fluctuate, and it is strongly volatile in the short - term [63]. - Iron Ore: The short - term price is overbought, and it is advisable to reduce long positions [65]. - Coking Coal & Coke: Pay attention to the winter storage inventory transfer [67]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They are affected by news and are strongly volatile in the short - term [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The price will fluctuate narrowly [73]. - Cotton: Pay attention to policy adjustments and consider long - position layout at low prices [76]. - Sugar: The short - term price is strongly volatile [78]. - Eggs: The price may remain strongly volatile [80]. - Red Dates: The price will be in low - level fluctuations [81]. - Logs: Use a range - trading strategy [83].
金融期货早评-20260108
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-01-08 05:27