Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside expectation of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to the US soybean yield and exports. There is no obvious speculative driver for the South American weather in the short term. Currently, Brazil has started harvesting. With the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium. [8][9] - The de-stocking expectation of domestic soybeans at the end of January has accelerated. At the same time, due to concerns about the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter and the extended customs inspection, the downstream pre-holiday stocking expectation is relatively positive, which is conducive to supporting the domestic spot price trend before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter brings a structural problem of domestic supply, which supports M03. The M03-M05 spread is still biased towards positive arbitrage in the short term, with the risk lying in policy changes. It is difficult to predict the specific volume, price, and shipping rhythm of the imported soybean auction or directional sales. Investors are recommended to operate with caution. [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - Dalian's 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) was 389 on January 7, down 15; Tianjin's was 359, down 15; Rizhao's was 329, up 5; Zhangjiagang's was 309, down 15; Dongguan's was 329, up 5; Zhanjiang's was 369, up 5; and Fangcheng's was 369, up 5. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 19 on January 7, down 24. [6] Spread Data - The M1-5 spread was 360 on January 7, down 14; the RM1-5 spread was 258, up 11; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 656, up 36; and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 392, up 6. [6][7] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9594, and the spot premium for 2025 continuous-month soybeans was 157.00 cents per bushel. The on - disk crushing profit was 158 yuan per ton. [7] Inventory Data - The report shows inventory trends of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, as well as the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2025. [7] 开机 and压榨情况 - The report presents the soybean crushing volume and operating rate of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2025. [7]
蛋白数据日报-20260108
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2026-01-08 05:37