20260108申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper price closed 1.93% lower overnight. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions have led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: The zinc price closed 0.82% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be monitored. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Market Data - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 12,900 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 146,075 tons with a daily increase of 3,525 tons [2] - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 504,250 tons with a daily decrease of 2,500 tons [2] - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,168 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,775 tons with a daily decrease of 75 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 255,546 tons with a daily increase of 192 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 105 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,060 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 233,350 tons with a daily decrease of 3,550 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,210 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 44,323 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,420 tons with a daily increase of 5 tons [2]