贵贵贵贵贵2026、01、05

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the cumulative increase of spot gold was 64%, and spot silver soared 147%, becoming the best - performing commodity category of the year. In January 2026, the core concerns of the precious metal market are the successor of Powell, the December non - farm payroll data to be released on January 9, and the potential sanctions of the US on Chinese mining enterprises in South America. The core macro - logic supporting the gold price in 2026 will continue, and the resilience of the gold price will support the silver price [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Overseas Main Interest Rates - The market has factored in two interest rate cuts in 2026, the first in April and the second in October. After the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes, traders' bets on the two interest rate cuts in 2026 remained unchanged. There were significant differences in the December meeting minutes [8]. - Last week, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities diverged. The 30 - year UST yield rose 5.52bps to 4.87%, the 10 - year UST yield rose 6.3bps to 4.19%, and the 2 - year UST yield fell 0.16bps to 3.47%. The yield curve steepened. The term premium of long - term interest rates is at a relatively high level since 2025 [11]. - The use of ONRRP last week was $5.67 billion, a decrease of $4.88 billion from the previous value. The Fed's reserve balance last Wednesday was $2.853 trillion, a decrease of $128 billion from the previous week [17]. - As of December 23, the positions of long - and short - term US Treasury bond interest rates were bearish. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures increased by 11,570 lots to 1,362,703 lots, and the non - commercial net short positions of 10 - year UST futures increased by 72,262 lots to 742,370 lots. As of the week of December 15, the sentiment of JPM Treasury net long investors was 21, a significant rebound from the previous week [21]. - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS diverged. The 5 - year TIPS yield remained flat at 1.46% compared with the previous week, and the 10 - year TIPS yield rose 3bp to 1.94% [28]. Dollar Index and Liquidity - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell 4.4%, and the dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.5, with their rolling correlation increasing. The dollar appreciated 0.2% against the yen, 0.5% against the euro, and 0.3% against the pound [34]. - As of December 23, the total position of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 793 lots to 16,700 lots, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 219 lots to 21,000 lots, with the long - side force dominant. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio was 59%, unchanged from the previous week, and the short position ratio was 73%, a decrease from the previous week [38]. - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap of the yen and the euro increased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity decreased [41]. Inflation High - Frequency Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.88, with the copper price rising and the gold price falling, indicating a marginal increase in global aggregate demand momentum [48]. Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated higher because the decline of the gold price was smaller than that of the silver price last week. The gold - to - copper ratio decreased because the gold price fell and the copper price rose. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased month - on - month because the oil price rose and the gold price fell [57]. - From the perspective of rolling correlation, the correlation between gold and crude oil and copper decreased, while the correlation between gold and the dollar index increased [65]. - During the rapid rise of Shanghai silver last week, the price difference between the domestic and foreign silver markets reached a maximum of about - 400, significantly deviating from the equilibrium level, and then gradually declined [70]. Inventory and Positions - In terms of inventory, last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 36.403 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 244,000 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449.774 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 1.579 million ounces. The SHFE gold inventory was about 97.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 182.9 tons to 669.5 tons [75]. - The SPDR gold ETF position decreased by 6 tons to 1,065 tons, and the current position scale is near the lower median of the past 10 years. The SLV silver ETF position increased by 53.6 tons to 16,444 tons, currently at a medium - to - high level [80]. - The total COMEX gold position increased by 21,010 lots to 492,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions increased by 9,241 lots to 290,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,519 lots to 49,000 lots, indicating an increase in the long - side force of gold allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 59%, and the non - commercial short position ratio remained around 10% [86]. - The total COMEX silver position increased by 2,789 lots to 156,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 791 lots to 55,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 323 lots to 19,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side force of silver allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 35.5%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 12.4% [92].