苯乙烯周报：利好因素发酵-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is neutral [5] - The investment rating for styrene is neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene supply remained stable, with no obvious changes on the supply - side. The main change was in downstream demand. Some styrene downstream plants had unexpected maintenance, reducing pure benzene demand. Caprolactam's profit improved significantly due to production cuts, and the downstream PA6开工率 dropped significantly. It is expected that the caprolactam load will not increase significantly. Currently, the pure benzene port inventory is as high as 300,000 tons, at a historical peak, but the valuation is low. Under the weak reality, the driving force for pure benzene is poor, and the valuation is difficult to recover in the short term. In the future, the fundamentals in the short - term are still not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the possibility of the early restart of pure benzene downstream after significant profit repair [5] Styrene - Last week, there was unexpected maintenance on the styrene supply - side, reducing the overall supply. In terms of demand, the consumption of three S increased, but the overall fluctuation was small. The overall inventory of downstream three S was still at a high level, and the demand is expected to change little in the short term. In terms of inventory, styrene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in the future. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread is low. Last week, the styrene market rose due to unexpected maintenance and export news. With the low valuation of styrene, the influence of marginal positive factors has increased. The main negative factor is the surplus of upstream pure benzene. Attention should be paid to the changes in plants and exports [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - The pure benzene supply is rated as neutral. The operating rate changed little, and the actual supply is relatively large. There are many ongoing plant shutdowns, such as Changyi Petrochemical, Jincheng Petrochemical, etc. The overall supply situation is relatively stable [6][18] Demand - The pure benzene demand is rated as bearish. The overall operating rate of downstream industries is weak. The downstream overall profit has recovered a lot but remains at a low level. The main downstream industries include styrene, caprolactam, etc., and their demand for pure benzene is affected by factors such as plant maintenance and profit [6][20] Month - to - Month Spread - The pure benzene month - to - month spread is rated as bearish. It is expected that the overall inventory will accumulate in the future, and the month - to - month spread is expected to weaken. The port inventory of pure benzene is expected to continue to accumulate, and although it is relatively balanced in January, there may be inventory reduction if there are other maintenance plants [6][53] External Market Support - The external market support for pure benzene is rated as bullish. The US - Asia arbitrage window is only open for large - vessel mixed aromatic hydrocarbons. In North America, demand is under pressure; in Western Europe, holiday demand is low; in Asia, downstream demand remains weak due to low profits [6][52] Styrene Supply - The styrene supply is rated as bullish. The operating rate has rebounded, but the overall supply is not large. Due to the small change in the month - on - month maintenance volume, the maintenance volume in January decreased slightly, and the output in January is expected to increase [8][56] Demand - The styrene demand is rated as neutral. The downstream demand remains stable, neither strong nor weak. The overall operating rate of downstream three S is low, and the downstream inventory is still high. The overall downstream profit has weakened significantly, and the profit distribution is concentrated in styrene [8][61] Month - to - Month Spread - The styrene month - to - month spread is rated as bearish. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in January, and the month - to - month spread may weaken [8] External Market Support - The external market support for styrene is rated as bullish. The Asia - Europe spread is large, and attention should be paid to possible export changes. In North America, export arbitrage is closed; in Western Europe, downstream demand is low; in Asia, the poor profit of downstream three S weakens the willingness to buy [8][109] Pricing Logic Styrene Basis - The styrene basis has strengthened recently. Due to the decrease in inventory and the tightening of spot liquidity, the basis has strengthened. With the start of seasonal inventory accumulation, the subsequent basis may weaken. The near - month styrene has changed to a Back structure, while the far - month contracts are still in a contango structure. Attention should be paid to the structural changes under the seasonal inventory accumulation in Q1. For pure benzene, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened [99] Styrene Profit - The styrene profit has recovered significantly. Stimulated by unexpected maintenance and export news, styrene prices rose significantly, leading to a significant increase in styrene profit, while the profit of downstream three S is under obvious pressure [102]