大类资产月度策略（2026.1）：股汇共鸣迎暖春，债市避锋待转机-20260108

Group 1 - The report highlights a "wide monetary + wide credit" environment, indicating stable credit expansion momentum and low risks of tightening financial conditions, which supports macroeconomic performance and asset markets [1][11] - In December, the major stock indices in China rose, reinforcing the consensus of a "slow bull" market, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, driven by increased ETF inflows [2][27] - The report suggests a shift in market style from a "dumbbell" approach favoring micro-cap and dividend value stocks to a more balanced "olive" shape favoring mid-cap stocks [2][27] Group 2 - The bond market showed signs of pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield declining faster than fundamental indicators, indicating accumulated adjustment risks [3][27] - The report notes that the Chinese yuan has returned to the "6" range, supported by external factors such as the weakening US dollar and internal economic recovery momentum [3][27] - Commodity markets displayed strength overall, with significant performance in precious metals like gold, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][27] Group 3 - The report recommends asset allocation strategies, suggesting a higher allocation to equities under an aggressive scenario (30% stocks, 70% bonds) and a more conservative approach (15% stocks, 85% bonds) [4][22] - Global asset allocation models indicate a preference for equities in various countries, with specific allocation percentages for major markets like the US, Germany, and Japan [22][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment indices, which can provide insights into investor behavior and market trends [50][57]