房地产行业2025年度业绩前瞻：优质企业利润率先筑底

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintained)" [5] Core Insights - In 2025, the gross profit margin of quality real estate companies is expected to show slight recovery, continuing into 2027. This is based on the observation that most projects recognized in 2025 were acquired around 2023, with a less competitive land auction market in 2023 allowing financially strong companies to acquire high-margin land reserves. The "Good House" policy in 2025 is anticipated to further improve the profit margins of high-quality projects [1] - The inventory still faces impairment pressure, with the cumulative decline in housing prices in 50 key cities expected to reach approximately 14% in 2025, an increase of about 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024. The difficulty in selling older inventory may increase due to product iteration trends, and the performance of second-hand housing prices is expected to be below expectations. This could lead to increased inventory impairment pressure for real estate companies [2] - The first half of 2026 is expected to see weak beta for the real estate industry due to strong short-term policy stability and continued weak demand. The second half of 2026 will depend on whether there is further clearing on the supply side, which could positively signal policy release and market confidence recovery. Specific companies such as Jianfa Co., Ltd., Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their unique alpha characteristics [3] Summary by Sections - 2025 Core Profit Influencing Factors: Quality real estate companies are expected to see a recovery in gross profit margins starting in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable land acquisition conditions and supportive policies [1] - Inventory Impairment Pressure: The decline in housing prices and challenges in selling older inventory are expected to increase impairment pressure for real estate companies in 2025 [2] - Investment Recommendations: The report suggests focusing on companies with positive operational improvements and strategic project locations, while monitoring market conditions in the second half of 2026 [3]