固定收益部市场日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market effectively absorbed new bond supplies, with strong demand for 5-year duration bonds, while lower-yielding front-end papers faced selling pressure [2]. - Asian IG credits tightened by 1 - 3bps this morning, driven by flows into 5-year duration issues and FRNs with spreads over 90 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - The new CASHLD 6.25 Perp rose 0.9pt from RO at 99.965; the new FRESHK 29 tightened 10bps from RO at T+178; existing FRESHK 26 - 28s tightened 5bps; EIBKOR 29 - 36s opened 1 - 2bps tighter but retraced and closed flat to 1bp wider; RESONA 31, SWIPRO 31, MITHCC 31s, CLFCAP 31 and BAYFIM 29 tightened 3 - 6bps; new NAB 29 - 31s and STANLN 30 - 37s traded 1 - 2bps inside ROs; EBIUH 31 rose 0.4pt while EBIUH 29 closed around RO; KSA 56s had profit - taking selling and KSA 36s closed 0.1pt higher [2]. - In the secondary market, there was demand for higher - spread FRNs of EU/Chinese/Japanese banks; Japanese/Yankee insurance subs, AT1s, and HYSAN Perps rose 0.3pt; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex moved 0.2pt lower to 0.7pt higher; EHICARs were down 0.2 - 0.6pt; Macau gaming complex moved 0.1pt lower to 0.2pt higher; VNKRLE 27 - 29 dropped 2.6 - 2.8pts; FUTLN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower; VLLPM 27 - 29 rose 1.3 - 1.9pts; INDYIJ 29s rose 0.3pt; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower [3]. - PMBROV 30/NUFAU 30/EHICAR 26 were 0.7 - 0.9pt lower; LNGFOR 28 27 - 28 were 0.6 - 0.8pt higher; SJMHOLs were unchanged and other Macau gaming bonds were unchanged to 0.1pt lower; TOPTBs/PTTGCs were unchanged to 0.1pt higher [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: CFAMCI 4.95 11/07/47 rose 2.4, VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 rose 1.9, VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 rose 1.3, CHGDNU 4.8 09/11/48 rose 1.1, NWDEVL 5 7/8 06/16/27 rose 0.7 [5]. - Top Underperformers: VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 dropped 2.8, VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 dropped 2.6, FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 dropped 1.3, EHICAR 12 09/26/27 dropped 0.6, GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 dropped 0.5 [5]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P was down 0.34%, Dow was down 0.94%, and Nasdaq was up 0.16%. US Dec'25 ADP Nonfarm Employment change was +41k (lower than expected +49k), ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI was 54.5 (higher than forecast 52.2), and Crude Oil Inventories were -3.932mn (lower than expected -1.2mn). UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.47%/3.70%/4.15%/4.82% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments SJMHOL - The FV of the new SJMHOL 31 is expected to be low - mid 6% vs IPT of 6.875%. The net proceeds will fund a tender offer for USD500mn SJMHOL 4.5 01/27/26 at par and for general corporate purposes. The new bond is puttable at par under certain conditions and has a Change of Control put at 101%. Holders of SJMHOL 26 subscribing to the new bond may get priority acceptance and preferential allocation. The tender offer expires on 12 Jan'26 at 4pm London Time [8]. - As of Sep'25, SJM had HKD3.4bn cash and short - term deposits and HKD2.7bn undrawn facilities. Its LTM adj. property EBITDA was HKD3.7bn. Budgeted capex was HKD2bn in 2025, HKD1.5 - 1.8bn in 2026, and below HKD1bn in 2027. Moody's/Fitch changed the outlook to negative and affirmed Ba3/BB - rating. Eight of nine satellite casinos ceased operation by 2025, and SJM acquired L'Arc Hotel for HKD1.75bn in Dec'25. The firm is neutral on SJMHOLs and prefers MPELs/STCITYs [9]. TOPTB - The FV of the new PerpNC5.25 is expected to be low 6% vs IPT at 6.625%. The coupon resets in Apr'31, steps up by 25bps in Apr'36, and another 75bps in Apr'51. Coupon payment is cumulative and can be deferred, with restrictions on shareholder distributions [13]. - Proceeds will fund a tender offer for up to USD550mn of 5 USD bonds. An early tender premium of 5pts is provided for tenders on or before 20 Jan'26 5pm EST [14]. - Thai Oil is a leading integrated refining and petrochemical company in Thailand, with a refining capacity of about 275k barrels per day (c22% of total in Thailand). PTT and PTT Oil and Retail are its main customers and PTT is the main feedstock supplier [15]. Offshore Asia New Issues Priced - Riyad Bank issued USD1000mn 10NC5 bonds with a 5.805% coupon at T+210, rated -/BBB -/BBB [20]. Pipeline - Korea Housing Finance Corporation plans to issue 3yr/5yr bonds, sized in USD, with coupons of SOFR+77/CT5+63, rated Aa2/AA - [21]. - SJM International Limited plans to issue 5NC2 bonds in USD with a 6.875% coupon, rated B1/-/BB [21]. - Thaioil Treasury Center Company Ltd plans to issue PerpNC5.25 bonds in USD with a 6.625% coupon, rated Ba2/BB -/- [21]. Onshore Primary Issuances - Yesterday, 79 credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB64bn. Month - to - date, 258 credit bonds were issued for a total of RMB205bn, a 23.9% yoy decrease [26]. - Dalian Wanda Commercial sold Changde Wanda Property; Emperor International shareholders approved a HKD1.16bn sale of a Hong Kong commercial building to OCBC; Minmetals Land will repurchase USD251.174mn of MINMET 4.95 07/22/26; New World Development expects to redeem 2026 - 2027 bonds with internal cash after selling a project for HKD1.16bn; China Vanke will hold a noteholders' meeting on 21 Jan'26 for RMB3.7bn 22WankeMTN005 notes to vote on maturity extension [26].