纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is fluctuating and bullish [1] Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a fluctuating and bullish trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and moved lower during the day, showing a short - term fluctuating and bullish signal. The upper pressure is near the 60 - week moving average, and the support is near the 40 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 156,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 131,000 lots. The intraday high was 1271, the low was 1222, and the closing price was 1239, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The spot market rose slightly. Enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments. The output of Boyuan Yingen increased, and industrial supply remained at a high level. Downstream procurement sentiment was average, mostly replenishing on - demand, with low - price transactions being the main form [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons or 4.26% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 104,300 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons or 6.93% [2] - Demand: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [3][4] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output remains at a high level. Before New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing inventory. However, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [5]