溢价回落：软商品日报-20260108

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the recent significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures is mainly driven by the expected reduction in domestic supply in 2026 under policy guidance, and the tight expectation of commercial inventory in the middle and late stages of the year due to stable consumption. However, the cotton yarn market is relatively calm, with limited price increases and poor new - order feedback. The downstream weaving industry has inventory - reduction pressure and is not actively replenishing stocks. The price increase space of cotton is restricted, and it may adjust next week, with limited downside space and support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. - For sugar, as of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was 392,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,400 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,300 tons. The domestic production and sales data basically met market expectations. The international sugar market is calm, and the ICE raw sugar futures price is range - bound. The Indian sugar production is progressing smoothly, but the current price limits its export willingness. The international sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, and it may be advisable to buy on dips near the out - of - quota import cost [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Cotton - The core drivers of the recent significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures are the expected reduction in domestic supply in 2026 under policy guidance and the tight expectation of commercial inventory in the middle and late stages of the year due to stable consumption [1]. - The cotton yarn market is calm, with spinning enterprises slightly increasing prices, but new orders from downstream are not positive, and the actual price increase is limited. The downstream weaving industry has inventory - reduction pressure and is not actively replenishing stocks at the end of the year [1]. - The price increase space of cotton is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream. It may adjust next week, with limited downside space and support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. Sugar - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was 392,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,400 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 281,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,300 tons. The domestic production and sales data basically met market expectations [1]. - The international sugar market is calm, the ICE raw sugar futures price is range - bound, the Indian sugar production is progressing smoothly, but the current price limits its export willingness. The international sugar price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - The basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, and it may be advisable to buy on dips near the out - of - quota import cost [2].