短期震荡偏强：玻璃日报-20260108

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Short-term shock is strong [1] - Core View: Recently, glass production lines have successively undergone cold repairs, and the short-term supply contraction has improved the phased supply-demand structure. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short-term price may maintain a strong shock. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and the cold repair of production lines [4] Market Review - Futures Market: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, strengthening during the day. The three tracks of the 120-minute Bollinger Bands opened upwards, indicating a short-term continuation of the strong shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous high, and the support was near today's low. The trading volume decreased by 248,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 67,492 lots compared to yesterday. The intraday high was 1171, the low was 1136, and the closing price was 1163, up 30 yuan/ton (2.65%) from yesterday's settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The overall production and sales were good. Except for the stable prices in the northwest region, enterprises in other regions raised prices. In North China, the market transaction was good, and manufacturers' psychology of holding prices gradually emerged. In East China, downstream demand replenishment was the main factor, and prices were temporarily stable. In Central China, the transaction was okay, and individual manufacturers in Hubei raised prices. In South China, downstream procurement was appropriate, and the center of gravity moved up [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was -143 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a decrease of 1.32% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year. The average industry start-up rate was 71.96%, a decrease of 1.08% month-on-month; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a decrease of 1.03% month-on-month. The design capacity of the first line in Chenzhou of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. was 1000 tons/day, and it was expected to be water-cooled and repaired today. The design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy-saving Technology Co., Ltd. was 520 tons/day, and it stopped feeding last night, and the output is expected to further shrink [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes month-on-month, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month and an increase of 27.04% year-on-year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period. At present, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, the market sentiment has improved, and the production capacity has been reduced, which has boosted the transfer of enterprise inventory to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year. At present, engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10-15 days. Home improvement and other types are still mainly low-value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - Supply-side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long-term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity. Six glass production lines were water-cooled and repaired before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold-repaired this week, further shrinking the supply. However, real estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year-on-year, and completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real estate demand [4]