2025年美国经济回顾：表面韧性与内在脆弱

Economic Overview - In 2025, the US GDP is expected to grow slightly above 2%, with a projected range of 2.1% to 2.3% for the year[9] - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.1%, down from 2.8% in 2024[9] Resilience Factors - The rapid adjustment of Trump's tariff policy led to a quick dissipation of its negative impact on economic growth, with no significant effect on overall inflation[16] - US consumer spending remained resilient, benefiting from a wealth effect, contributing approximately 25% to consumption growth in 2025[21] - AI-related investments surged, contributing about 1 percentage point to GDP growth in 2025, up from 0.3 percentage points in previous years[23] Structural Weaknesses - The job market showed significant cooling, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.0% in January to 4.6% in November 2025, the highest level since September 2021[13] - Consumer confidence declined sharply, with inflation expectations rising to 4.2% by December 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's 2.8%[30] - The top 10% of income earners contributed nearly 50% of total consumption, highlighting increasing income inequality and a "K-shaped" economic recovery[32] Investment Trends - Traditional sectors like residential and non-residential construction saw a decline, with residential investment shrinking for three consecutive quarters in 2025[35] - The average fixed mortgage rate remained above 6%, hindering recovery in the housing market despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts[35]