2026 年牛市展望系列1：入市增量资金有望超两万亿

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows from active funds such as leveraged and private equity funds, while insurance capital will also play a substantial role, contrasting with the overall net redemption of actively managed public funds [1][2][4] - The primary source of incoming funds is expected to shift towards high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main contributors by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers from low levels [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan for 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the A-share market's performance is supported by a robust funding environment, with inflows categorized into two phases: the first half of the year saw a recovery in the market, while the third quarter experienced significant inflows from private equity and leveraged trading [2][19] - The first half of 2025 saw a total inflow of approximately 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds, 2.4 billion yuan from retail investors, and 1 billion yuan from foreign capital, with a notable focus on technology and dividend sectors [2][14] - The third quarter marked a substantial increase in leveraged funds, with around 7 billion yuan entering the market, and private equity funds also significantly increased their market presence, contributing approximately 4 billion yuan [19][20] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, as evidenced by a survey indicating an increase in investment willingness among 18.5% of urban depositors [3][32] - Despite signs of recovery in risk appetite among residents, the majority of funds entering the market are still from high-risk tolerant individuals, with broader participation from the general public remaining limited [3][36] - The overall risk appetite of residents remains low, with many still favoring low-risk investment products, which may hinder a more significant influx of resident funds into the market [36][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of funds for 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with contributions anticipated from retail investors, insurance capital, and improved public and foreign fund participation [4][55] - The inflow sources for 2026 include an estimated 10 billion yuan from retail active funds, 7 billion yuan from insurance capital, and 9.5 billion yuan from corporate dividends, indicating a diverse funding landscape [57][58] - The outflow of funds is expected to increase alongside market sentiment recovery, with projections for IPOs and refinancing activities to rise significantly, reflecting a more active capital market environment [58][59]