铁矿日报：期现冲高有所回落，港口成交转弱-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Iron ore fundamentals show that supply-side new shipments are gradually decreasing, demand is slightly recovering, and although port inventories are still increasing, they are gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, along with the recent general rise in commodity price sentiment, the futures and spot markets form a certain resonance. In the short term, there may be some corrections, but overall, it still shows a gradually strengthening trend in a volatile pattern [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fell to 813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton (-1.81%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 443,000 lots, an open interest of 637,000 lots (a reduction of 29,000 lots), and a settled capital of 11.388 billion yuan. The price faced pressure near the previous high of 840 and pulled back [1] - Spot prices of mainstream port varieties declined slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped 3 to 829 yuan/ton, the Super Special powder dropped 3 to 707 yuan/ton, and the main swap contract was at 107.9 (-1.1) US dollars/ton [1] - The PB powder at Qingdao Port was converted to a futures price of 860.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.7 yuan/ton (the basis widened). The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 45 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis. Although there was a short - term weak correction, the overall trend continued to strengthen gradually in a volatile manner [1] Fundamental Analysis - At the end of the year, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. Although the current arrival volume increased month - on - month, it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support high arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2] - On the demand side, hot metal production recovered month - on - month as blast furnaces resumed production after maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills slightly recovered, and inventory replenishment gradually started but at a slow pace. There is still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2] - In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the number of congested ships increased slightly. The inventory pressure is still building up. Steel mill inventories increased to some extent but are still significantly lower than historical levels, and the release of inventory replenishment demand is still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations for the first quarter of 2026 are rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds not fully disbursed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3] - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3]