2026年1月双焦基本面月报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - The coking coal and coke market currently has an oversupply situation. With the continuous low level of hot metal, there is limited room for price increases. It is more likely to operate stably with fluctuations before the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Interpretation - Domestic Market: In December, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, and non - manufacturing PMI to 50.2%. The recovery was driven by policies, external demand, and seasonal factors. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" start - up year, with economic growth pressure, proactive fiscal policies are expected to be implemented early, and corporate profit recovery will be an important market driver [8] - International Market: Overseas economies show a pattern of total expansion and falling interest rates. Major economies have looser monetary policies. The Fed cut the federal funds rate in December. The US, EU, and Japan have increasing fiscal deficits. Although the US economy grew rapidly in Q3 2025, core inflation is falling, providing room for loose policies, but future interest rate paths are uncertain [8] Coal Supply - In 2025, from January to November, China's total raw coal production was 4.402 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.84%. As of January 5, 2026, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal of 523 sample mines decreased month - on - month. In December, coking coal production declined slightly. In January, coal production will be restricted by various factors, and Mongolian coal imports may fall [10] Coking Coal Import - From January to November 2025, China's total coking coal imports were 104.8917 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.66%. Imports from Mongolia, Australia, Russia, and Canada all showed different trends. Weak demand and a cautious market sentiment restricted port coking coal prices [17] Coking Coal Inventory - As of January 5, 2026, the inventories of 523 clean coal sample mines, port coking coal, and independent coking enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of 247 integrated steel enterprises decreased slightly. In December, the coking coal inventory problem was significant, with upstream accumulation and slow downstream winter storage [26] Coke Supply - From January to November 2025, China's total coke production was 461 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. As of January 5, 2026, the daily output of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and that of 247 integrated steel plants increased slightly, but the capacity utilization rate decreased for both. In January, coke supply is expected to shrink further [34] Coke Import and Export - From January to November 2025, China's total coke and semi - coke exports were 693,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62%. Exports have been at a low level, restricted by coking coal cost fluctuations. In November, exports to Europe increased due to European steelmakers' procurement adjustments [44] Coke Inventory - As of January 5, 2026, the total coke inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The inventories of independent coking enterprises, 247 steel enterprises, and ports all rose. The overall coke inventory is accumulating, and the supply surplus pressure is increasing [47] Iron Element Demand - On January 5, 2026, the profit per ton of blast furnace steel increased, but the daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises and the consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly. In December, coke demand weakened, and in January, demand may be affected by factors such as the late Spring Festival, environmental protection, and maintenance [55] Iron Element Terminal Demand - From January to November 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. Steel exports increased by 6.66% year - on - year, showing economic structural differentiation [63]